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Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis...


Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BRamírez Villegas, Julián[Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity]Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this g...


Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGTermansen, MetteBenton, T.G.Gosling SNSouth AArnell, N.W.Challinor, Andrew J.Dougill, Andrew J.Forster PM[The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought]The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Recent changes in climate have had a measurable impact on crop yield in China. The objective of this study is to investigate how climate variability affects wheat yield in China at different spatial scales. First the response of wheat yield to the climate at the provincial level from 1978 to 1995...


Li SWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Erda, LinJu HYinlong X[The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China]The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports1 and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased att...


Iizumi TSakuma HYokozawa MLuo JJChallinor, Andrew J.Brown, M.E.Sakurai GYamagata T[Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production]Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input t...


Köhler, Ann-KristinChallinor, Andrew J.Hawkins EAsseng, Senthold[Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability]Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

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