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The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistica...


Falloon, P.Challinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Hoang LJohnson JKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts]Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases b...


García Carreras, L.Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BJBirch CENicklin KJParker DJ[The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes]The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failure...


Parkes BChallinor, Andrew J.Nicklin KJ[Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening]Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening
Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankMartre, PierreRosenzweig, CynthiaJones, JimHatfield, Jerry L.Ruane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Rötter, Reimund P.Cammarano, DavideBasso, BrunoAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, Richard A.Grant, RobertHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, TonyIngwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarKersebaum, Kurt-ChristianMüller, ChristophNaresh Kumar, SooraNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck ISupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWallach, DanielWhite, Jeffrey W.Williams, JimmyWolf, Joost[Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations]Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK c...


Wesselink AChallinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Beven, K.Allen IHanlon HLópez, A.Lorenz SOtto FMorse, AndyRye CSaux-Picard SStainforth DSuckling E[Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review]Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The review by H. C. J. Godfray et al. (12 February, p. 812) and the rest of the special section on Food Security call for a multifaceted approach to future global food security. We would like to emphasize three agricultural issues that were lacking


Porter JRChallinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankFalloon, P.Fischer TGregory PIttersum, Martin K. vanOlesen, J.E.Moore KJRosenzweig, CynthiaSmith, Pete[Food security: focus on agriculture]Food security: focus on agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could h...


Faloon, PBebber, DBushell, MChallinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Gurr, SKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture]Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well c...


Watson, J.Challinor, Andrew J.Fricker TEFerro CAT[Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model]Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model

Mounting evidence that climate change will impact food security demonstrates the need to adapt food systems to future conditions. New work sheds light on the measures that will be needed to do so, and what the gains of implementing them might be.


Challinor, Andrew J.[Agriculture: forecasting food]Agriculture: forecasting food

Food systems, from the local to the global, face a complex set of challenges in the twenty-first century. As recognized in the latest round of the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change talks, it is clear that global targets for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions cannot be met wi...


Whitfield, StephenChallinor, Andrew J.Rees, Robert M[Frontiers in Climate Smart Food Systems: Outlining the Research Space]Frontiers in Climate Smart Food Systems: Outlining the Research Space

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