This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. Th...
Vervoort, Joost M.
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Palazzo, Amanda
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Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Ericksen, Polly J.
,
Thornton, Philip K.
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Kristjanson, Patricia M.
,
Förch, Wiebke
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Herrero, Mario T.
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Havlík, Petr
,
Jost, Christine
,
Rowlands, H.
,
[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios]
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The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios
Shah D
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Joshi PK
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Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
[Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future]
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Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, a...
Nelson, Gerald C.
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Valin, Hugo
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Deryng, Delphine
,
Elliott J
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lampe M. von
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Robertson, Richard D.
,
Robinson, Sherman
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]
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Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate ch...
Ye L
,
Tang H
,
Wu, Wenliang
,
Yang P
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
[Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]
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Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures
Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2...
Takle ES
,
Gustafson D
,
Beachy, Roger N.
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
[US food security and climate change: agricultural futures]
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US food security and climate change: agricultural futures
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Lampe M. von
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Reilly J
,
Robertson, Richard D.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Takahashi, K.
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]
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Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partia...
Robinson, Sherman
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Masui T
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Wise, Marshall
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Kavallari, Aikaterini
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Dietrich, Jan Philipp
,
Lampe M. von
,
[Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system]
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Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...
Schmitz, Christoph
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Meijl, Hans van
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Kyle, Page
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Gurgel, Angelo
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Lampe M. von
,
Wise, Marshall
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Kavallari, Aikaterini
,
Valin, Hugo
,
[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]
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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with ...
Lampe M. von
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Cai, Yongxia
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]
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Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong wa...