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When politicians fail to agree, very often it is the poorest who suffer most. More than 25 million additional children could go hungry through the failure of Copenhagen, says Gerald C. Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute. As crop yields decline, the calories available per p...


Nelson, Gerald C.[The perfect storm: food security and nutrition under climate change]The perfect storm: food security and nutrition under climate change

Lampe M. vonWillenbockel, DirkAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCai, YongxiaCalvin, KatherineFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielNelson, Gerald C.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejValin, HugoMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMeijl, Hans van[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Climate change is expected to impact global food supply and food security by affecting growing conditions for agricultural production. Process-based dynamic growth models are important tools to estimate crop yields based on minimum inputs of climate, soil, crop management, and crop cultivar param...


Gbegbelegbe, SikaCammarano, DavideAsseng, SentholdRobertson, R.Chung, U.Adam, M.Abdalla, O.Payne, T.Reynolds, Matthew P.Sonder, KaiShiferaw, B.Nelson, Gerald C.[Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYTmega-environment specific cultivars]Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYTmega-environment specific cultivars

The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong wa...


Dube, SikhalazoScholes, Robert J.Nelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Proje...


Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derNelson, Gerald C.Ahammad, H.Blanc, ElodieBodirsky, Benjamin L.Fujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageMason-D'Croz, DanielPaltsev SRolinski STabeau, AndrzejMeijl, Hans vanLampe M. vonWillenbockel, Dirk[The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models]The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

The first decade of the 21st century has brought harbingers of a troubled future for global food security. The food-price spike of 2008 led to food riots and political change in several countries. In 2010, the excessive heat and drought in Russia that led to wildfires and a grain embargo, as well...


Nelson, Gerald C.Rosegrant, Mark W.Palazzo, AmandaGray IIngersoll CRobertson, Richard D.Tokgoz SZhu, T.Sulser TBRingler, ClaudiaMsangi SYou, Liangzhi[Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: challenges to 2050 and beyond]Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: challenges to 2050 and beyond

Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agricultur...


Vermeulen, Sonja J.Aggarwal, Pramod K.Ainslie, A.Angelone, C.Campbell, Bruce M.Challinor, Andrew J.Hansen, JamesIngram, J.S.I.Jarvis, AndyKristjanson, Patricia M.Lau, CharlotteNelson, Gerald C.Thornton, Philip K.Wollenberg, Eva K.[Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change]Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

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