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Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
Payo ABecker, P.Otto AVervoort, Joost M.Kingsborough A[Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems]Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems

Under the partnership initiated in 2015 between the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the Permanent Secretariat for Coordination of Agricultural Sector Policies (SP-CPSA), in collaboration with other CGIAR research programs and centers, an analysi...


Zougmoré, Robert B.Rutting, LucasSidibe, AmadouOuédraogo, JoachimZida, MathurinRabdo, AbdoulayeOuédraogo, MathieuBalinga, MichaelVervoort, Joost M.Partey, Samuel T.Palé, RémyOuédraogo, MouminiPouya, ClarisseSondo, Marie Denis[Formulation of a Robust National Rural Sector Program in Burkina Faso: What new themes have emerged from the socio-economic and climate scenarios process?]Formulation of a Robust National Rural Sector Program in Burkina Faso: What new themes have emerged from the socio-economic and climate scenarios process?

Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-off...


Soesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Sassen MStuch BSchaldach RGöpel, J.Vervoort, Joost M.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaPalazzo, Amanda[Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment]Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

The Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5 degree temperature target has given further impetus to efforts to imagine (and seek to govern) transformative and uncertain climate futures. This brings to the fore multiple challenges in the search for anticipatory governance and the role herein for climate...


Vervoort, Joost M.Gupta, Aarti[Anticipating climate futures in a 1.5 °C era: the link between foresight and governance]Anticipating climate futures in a 1.5 °C era: the link between foresight and governance

In this exploratory paper we propose ‘worldmaking’ as a framework for pluralistic, imaginative scenario development. Our points of departure are the need in scenario practice to embrace uncertainty, discomfort and knowledge gaps, and the connected need to capture and make productive fundamental p...


Vervoort, Joost M.Bendor RKelliher AStrik OHelfgott, Ariella E.S.[Scenarios and the art of worldmaking]Scenarios and the art of worldmaking

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national le...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Mason-D'Croz, DanielRutting, LucasHavlík, PetrIslam, ShahnilaBayala, JulesValin, HugoKadi Kadi, Hame A.Thornton, Philip K.[Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context]Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

What would be the impacts of this kind of future on food security for the region s poor, who live under pressures of climate change? What new challenges would emerge? Could tensions arise from East Africa s assertion of power? What about a future where political and economic fragmentation continu...


Vervoort, Joost M.Ericksen, Polly J.[No foresight, no food? Regional scenarios for Africa and South Asia]No foresight, no food? Regional scenarios for Africa and South Asia

Global pressures on food security such as climate change, rising food prices and rising populations demand collaborative action from actors governing food systems across all levels and scales. This paper describes concerted efforts in East Africa, West Africa and South Asia to build capacity for ...


Vervoort, Joost M.Ingram, J.Ericksen, Polly J.Chaudhury, M.Förch, WiebkeThornton, Philip K.Kristjanson, Patricia M.[Multi-actor scenarios to build capacity for food systems governance at the sub-continental level]Multi-actor scenarios to build capacity for food systems governance at the sub-continental level

What does the future hold for food security and adaptation to climate change in East Africa? What if there was concerted action towards political and economic integration? What if the opposite happened, and the region became even more fragmented, with people in power focusing on their own narrow ...


Vervoort, Joost M.[Shared action on food and environments in East Africa]Shared action on food and environments in East Africa

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