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The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff bet...


Challinor, Andrew J.Osborne, Tom M.Shaffrey, LenWeller, HilaryMorse, AndyWheeler, TimVidale, Pier Luigi[Methods and resources for climate impacts research]Methods and resources for climate impacts research

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agri...


Ju HErda, LinWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Jiang S[Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield]Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and d...


Challinor, Andrew J.Wheeler, TimHemming DUpadhyaya, Hari D.[Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change]Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

As satellite technology develops, satellite rainfall estimates are likely to become ever more important in the world of food security. It is therefore vital to be able to identify the uncertainty of such estimates and for end users to be able to use this information in a meaningful way. This pape...


Greatrex HGrimes DWheeler, Tim[Advances in the Stochastic Modeling of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates Using a Sparse Calibration Dataset]Advances in the Stochastic Modeling of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates Using a Sparse Calibration Dataset

Recent changes in climate have had a measurable impact on crop yield in China. The objective of this study is to investigate how climate variability affects wheat yield in China at different spatial scales. First the response of wheat yield to the climate at the provincial level from 1978 to 1995...


Li SWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Erda, LinJu HYinlong X[The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China]The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above o...


Li SWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Erda, LinYinlong XHui J[Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model]Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

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