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New agricultural development pathways are required to meet climate change adaptation and mitigation needs in the food systems of low-income countries. A research and policy agenda is provided to indicate where innovation and new knowledge are needed. Adaptation requires identifying suitable crop ...


Wollenberg, Eva K.Herrero, Mario T.Wassmann, ReinerNeufeldt, HenryVermeulen, Sonja J.Rosswall, T.Campbell, Bruce M.Hellin, J.Jarvis, AndyChallinor, Andrew J.Snook, L.K.Smakhtin, Vladimir U.Kinyangi, James[Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world]Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world

Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, wit...


Challinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankArnold, S.Simelton, ElisabethFraser E[Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation]Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff bet...


Challinor, Andrew J.Osborne, Tom M.Shaffrey, LenWeller, HilaryMorse, AndyWheeler, TimVidale, Pier Luigi[Methods and resources for climate impacts research]Methods and resources for climate impacts research

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Thornton, Philip K.Jarvis, Andy[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect...


Hawkins EOsborne, Tom M.Ho CKChallinor, Andrew J.[Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe]Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places....


Thornton, Philip K.Jones, Peter G.Ericksen, Polly J.Challinor, Andrew J.[Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world]Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agri...


Ju HErda, LinWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Jiang S[Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield]Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and d...


Challinor, Andrew J.Wheeler, TimHemming DUpadhyaya, Hari D.[Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change]Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

The impact of climate change on agriculture depends on the environmental and socio-economic contexts in which the changes occur. However, current tools to anticipate climate change impacts focus almost entirely on biological and environmental processes. For example, most large-scale crop models c...


Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGTermansen, MetteBenton, T.G.Gosling SNSouth AArnell, N.W.Challinor, Andrew J.Dougill, Andrew J.Forster PM[Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought]Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought

Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.


Challinor, Andrew J.Martre, PierreAsseng, SentholdThornton, Philip K.Ewert, Frank[Making the most of climate impacts ensembles]Making the most of climate impacts ensembles

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