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Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports1 and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased att...


Iizumi TSakuma HYokozawa MLuo JJChallinor, Andrew J.Brown, M.E.Sakurai GYamagata T[Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production]Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and...


Challinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Lobell, David B.Howden SMSmith, D.R.Chhetri, Netra[A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation]A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Sou...


Iizumi TLuo JChallinor, Andrew J.Sakurai GYokozawa MSakuma HBrown, M.E.Yamagata T[Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops]Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above o...


Li SWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Erda, LinYinlong XHui J[Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model]Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input t...


Köhler, Ann-KristinChallinor, Andrew J.Hawkins EAsseng, Senthold[Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability]Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums an...


Polce, ChiaraGarratt, Michael P.D.Termansen, MetteRamírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Lappage, Martin GBoatman, Nigel DCrowe, AndrewEndalew, Ayenew MelesePotts, Simon GSomerwill, Kate EBiesmeijer, Jacobus C.[Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits]Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

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