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New agricultural development pathways are required to meet climate change adaptation and mitigation needs in the food systems of low-income countries. A research and policy agenda is provided to indicate where innovation and new knowledge are needed. Adaptation requires identifying suitable crop ...


Wollenberg, Eva K.Herrero, Mario T.Wassmann, ReinerNeufeldt, HenryVermeulen, Sonja J.Rosswall, T.Campbell, Bruce M.Hellin, J.Jarvis, AndyChallinor, Andrew J.Snook, L.K.Smakhtin, Vladimir U.Kinyangi, James[Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world]Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world

Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, wit...


Challinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankArnold, S.Simelton, ElisabethFraser E[Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation]Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and d...


Challinor, Andrew J.Wheeler, TimHemming DUpadhyaya, Hari D.[Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change]Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on-farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesise that c...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánHeinemann, Alexandre B.Pereira de Castro, AdrianoBreseghello, FlávioNavarro-Racines, Carlos E.Li, TaoRebolledo, María CamilaChallinor, Andrew J.[Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil]Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistica...


Falloon, P.Challinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Hoang LJohnson JKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts]Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

In order for climate forecasting to be used in developing adaptation options, the forecasts should be able to affect decisions made by stakeholders in a manner that improves outcomes. The implications of this requirement for forecasting are presented under five headings: relevance, reliability, s...


Challinor, Andrew J.[Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales]Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty an...


Challinor, Andrew J.Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGHemming DCollins M[Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China]Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Mounting evidence that climate change will impact food security demonstrates the need to adapt food systems to future conditions. New work sheds light on the measures that will be needed to do so, and what the gains of implementing them might be.


Challinor, Andrew J.[Agriculture: forecasting food]Agriculture: forecasting food

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special...


Challinor, Andrew J.Müller, ChristophAsseng, SentholdDeva, ChetanNicklin, Kathryn JaneWallach, DanielVanuytrecht, ElineWhitfield, StephenRamírez Villegas, JuliánKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation]Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation
Wallach, DanielThorburn, Peter J.Asseng, SentholdChallinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankJones, James W.Rotter, Reimund P.Ruane, Alex C.[Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?]Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?

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