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New agricultural development pathways are required to meet climate change adaptation and mitigation needs in the food systems of low-income countries. A research and policy agenda is provided to indicate where innovation and new knowledge are needed. Adaptation requires identifying suitable crop ...


Wollenberg, Eva K.Herrero, Mario T.Wassmann, ReinerNeufeldt, HenryVermeulen, Sonja J.Rosswall, T.Campbell, Bruce M.Hellin, J.Jarvis, AndyChallinor, Andrew J.Snook, L.K.Smakhtin, Vladimir U.Kinyangi, James[Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world]Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff bet...


Challinor, Andrew J.Osborne, Tom M.Shaffrey, LenWeller, HilaryMorse, AndyWheeler, TimVidale, Pier Luigi[Methods and resources for climate impacts research]Methods and resources for climate impacts research

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Thornton, Philip K.Jarvis, Andy[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect...


Hawkins EOsborne, Tom M.Ho CKChallinor, Andrew J.[Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe]Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agri...


Ju HErda, LinWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Jiang S[Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield]Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

The impact of climate change on agriculture depends on the environmental and socio-economic contexts in which the changes occur. However, current tools to anticipate climate change impacts focus almost entirely on biological and environmental processes. For example, most large-scale crop models c...


Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGTermansen, MetteBenton, T.G.Gosling SNSouth AArnell, N.W.Challinor, Andrew J.Dougill, Andrew J.Forster PM[Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought]Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought

Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.


Challinor, Andrew J.Martre, PierreAsseng, SentholdThornton, Philip K.Ewert, Frank[Making the most of climate impacts ensembles]Making the most of climate impacts ensembles

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistica...


Falloon, P.Challinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Hoang LJohnson JKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts]Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world (high confidence). Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some highlatitude regions (high confidence). Since AR4, ...


Porter JRXie LChallinor, Andrew J.Cochrane, K.Howden SMIqbal MMLobell, David B.Travasso, Maria[Food security and food production systems]Food security and food production systems

Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases b...


García Carreras, L.Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BJBirch CENicklin KJParker DJ[The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes]The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

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