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Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places....


Thornton, Philip K.Jones, Peter G.Ericksen, Polly J.Challinor, Andrew J.[Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world]Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agri...


Ju HErda, LinWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Jiang S[Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield]Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on-farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesise that c...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánHeinemann, Alexandre B.Pereira de Castro, AdrianoBreseghello, FlávioNavarro-Racines, Carlos E.Li, TaoRebolledo, María CamilaChallinor, Andrew J.[Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil]Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistica...


Falloon, P.Challinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Hoang LJohnson JKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts]Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world (high confidence). Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some highlatitude regions (high confidence). Since AR4, ...


Porter JRXie LChallinor, Andrew J.Cochrane, K.Howden SMIqbal MMLobell, David B.Travasso, Maria[Food security and food production systems]Food security and food production systems

Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases b...


García Carreras, L.Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BJBirch CENicklin KJParker DJ[The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes]The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failure...


Parkes BChallinor, Andrew J.Nicklin KJ[Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening]Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening
Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankMartre, PierreRosenzweig, CynthiaJones, JimHatfield, Jerry L.Ruane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Rötter, Reimund P.Cammarano, DavideBasso, BrunoAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, Richard A.Grant, RobertHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, TonyIngwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarKersebaum, Kurt-ChristianMüller, ChristophNaresh Kumar, SooraNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck ISupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWallach, DanielWhite, Jeffrey W.Williams, JimmyWolf, Joost[Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations]Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK c...


Wesselink AChallinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Beven, K.Allen IHanlon HLópez, A.Lorenz SOtto FMorse, AndyRye CSaux-Picard SStainforth DSuckling E[Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review]Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review
Cammarano, DavideRötter, Reimund P.Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankWallach, DanielMartre, PierreHatfield, Jerry L.Jones, James W.Rosenzweig, CynthiaRuane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Kersebaum, Kurt-ChristianAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBasso, BrunoBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianBrisson, NadineChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, RichieHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, Leslie A.Ingwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarMüller, ChristophKumar, Soora NareshNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck, ThiloSupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWhite, Jeffrey W.Wolf, Joost[Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity totemperature and CO2]Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity totemperature and CO2

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