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In order for climate forecasting to be used in developing adaptation options, the forecasts should be able to affect decisions made by stakeholders in a manner that improves outcomes. The implications of this requirement for forecasting are presented under five headings: relevance, reliability, s...


Challinor, Andrew J.[Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales]Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty an...


Challinor, Andrew J.Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGHemming DCollins M[Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China]Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

When projecting future crop production, the skill of regional scale (>100 km resolution) crop models is limited by the spatial and temporal accuracy of the calibration and weather data used. The skill of climate models in reproducing surface properties such as mean temperature and rainfall patter...


Watson, J.Challinor, Andrew J.[The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional scale crop model]The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional scale crop model

Global temperatures have not been this high in at least 4,000 years. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today - 400 parts per million - has not been this high for three million years. Climate change has moved from an abstract concept to a basic fact of nature, and scientists ha...


Vermeulen, Sonja J.Challinor, Andrew J.[How farmers can adapt to a warming world]How farmers can adapt to a warming world

Climate change impacts upon the world's poorest most heavily. It is therefore essential that international development initiatives focus on improving the ability of developing countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. This book, a product of research by the JICA-RI (Research Institute ...


Challinor, Andrew J.[Climate change projections in some Asian countries]Climate change projections in some Asian countries

Mounting evidence that climate change will impact food security demonstrates the need to adapt food systems to future conditions. New work sheds light on the measures that will be needed to do so, and what the gains of implementing them might be.


Challinor, Andrew J.[Agriculture: forecasting food]Agriculture: forecasting food

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating mai...


Bergamaschi HCosta, S.M.S. daWheeler TRChallinor, Andrew J.[Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model]Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, th...


Hawkins EHo CKOsborne, Tom M.Fricker TEFerro CATChallinor, Andrew J.[Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s]Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and h...


Thornton, Philip K.Ericksen, Polly J.Herrero, Mario T.Challinor, Andrew J.[Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review]Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Insect pollinators of crops and wild plants are under threat globally and their decline or loss could have profound economic and environmental consequences. Here, we argue that multiple anthropogenic pressures – including land-use intensification, climate change, and the spread of alien species a...


Vanbergen, A.J.Baude, M.Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.Britton NFBrown, M.J.F.Bryden JBudge GEBull, J.C.Carvell CChallinor, Andrew J.Connolly CNEvans, D.J.Feil EJGarratt, Michael P.D.Greco MKHeard MSJansen VAAKeeling MJKunin WEMarris GCMemmott JMurray JTNicolson SWOsborne JLPaxton RJPirk CWWPolce CPotts SGPriest NKRaine NERoberts SRyabov EVShafir SShirley MDFSimpson SJStevenson PCStone GNTermansen, MetteWright GA[Threats to an ecosystem service: pressures on pollinators]Threats to an ecosystem service: pressures on pollinators

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