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Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases b...


García Carreras, L.Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BJBirch CENicklin KJParker DJ[The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes]The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failure...


Parkes BChallinor, Andrew J.Nicklin KJ[Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening]Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening
Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankMartre, PierreRosenzweig, CynthiaJones, JimHatfield, Jerry L.Ruane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Rötter, Reimund P.Cammarano, DavideBasso, BrunoAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, Richard A.Grant, RobertHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, TonyIngwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarKersebaum, Kurt-ChristianMüller, ChristophNaresh Kumar, SooraNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck ISupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWallach, DanielWhite, Jeffrey W.Williams, JimmyWolf, Joost[Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations]Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK c...


Wesselink AChallinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Beven, K.Allen IHanlon HLópez, A.Lorenz SOtto FMorse, AndyRye CSaux-Picard SStainforth DSuckling E[Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review]Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The review by H. C. J. Godfray et al. (12 February, p. 812) and the rest of the special section on Food Security call for a multifaceted approach to future global food security. We would like to emphasize three agricultural issues that were lacking


Porter JRChallinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankFalloon, P.Fischer TGregory PIttersum, Martin K. vanOlesen, J.E.Moore KJRosenzweig, CynthiaSmith, Pete[Food security: focus on agriculture]Food security: focus on agriculture

In order for climate forecasting to be used in developing adaptation options, the forecasts should be able to affect decisions made by stakeholders in a manner that improves outcomes. The implications of this requirement for forecasting are presented under five headings: relevance, reliability, s...


Challinor, Andrew J.[Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales]Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty an...


Challinor, Andrew J.Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGHemming DCollins M[Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China]Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China
Cammarano, DavideRötter, Reimund P.Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankWallach, DanielMartre, PierreHatfield, Jerry L.Jones, James W.Rosenzweig, CynthiaRuane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Kersebaum, Kurt-ChristianAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBasso, BrunoBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianBrisson, NadineChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, RichieHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, Leslie A.Ingwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarMüller, ChristophKumar, Soora NareshNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck, ThiloSupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWhite, Jeffrey W.Wolf, Joost[Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity totemperature and CO2]Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity totemperature and CO2

When projecting future crop production, the skill of regional scale (>100 km resolution) crop models is limited by the spatial and temporal accuracy of the calibration and weather data used. The skill of climate models in reproducing surface properties such as mean temperature and rainfall patter...


Watson, J.Challinor, Andrew J.[The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional scale crop model]The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional scale crop model

To achieve food security for many in low-income and middle-income countries for whom this is already a challenge, especially with the additional complications of climate change, will require early investment to support smallholder farming systems and the associated food systems that supply poor c...


Vermeulen, Sonja J.Zougmoré, Robert B.Wollenberg, Eva K.Thornton, Philip K.Nelson, Gerald C.Kristjanson, Patricia M.Kinyangi, JamesJarvis, AndyHansen, JamesChallinor, Andrew J.Campbell, Bruce M.Aggarwal, Pramod K.[Climate change, agriculture and food security: A global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers]Climate change, agriculture and food security: A global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers

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