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The impact of climate change on agriculture depends on the environmental and socio-economic contexts in which the changes occur. However, current tools to anticipate climate change impacts focus almost entirely on biological and environmental processes. For example, most large-scale crop models c...


Simelton, ElisabethFraser EDGTermansen, MetteBenton, T.G.Gosling SNSouth AArnell, N.W.Challinor, Andrew J.Dougill, Andrew J.Forster PM[Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought]Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: a quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistica...


Falloon, P.Challinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Hoang LJohnson JKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts]Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world (high confidence). Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some highlatitude regions (high confidence). Since AR4, ...


Porter JRXie LChallinor, Andrew J.Cochrane, K.Howden SMIqbal MMLobell, David B.Travasso, Maria[Food security and food production systems]Food security and food production systems

Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases b...


García Carreras, L.Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BJBirch CENicklin KJParker DJ[The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes]The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes

The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failure...


Parkes BChallinor, Andrew J.Nicklin KJ[Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening]Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening
Asseng, SentholdEwert, FrankMartre, PierreRosenzweig, CynthiaJones, JimHatfield, Jerry L.Ruane, Alex C.Boote, Kenneth J.Thorburn, Peter J.Rötter, Reimund P.Cammarano, DavideBasso, BrunoAggarwal, Pramod K.Angulo, CarlosBertuzzi, PatrickBiernath, ChristianChallinor, Andrew J.Doltra, JordiGayler, SebastianGoldberg, Richard A.Grant, RobertHeng, LeeHooker, JoshHunt, TonyIngwersen, JoachimIzaurralde, Roberto CésarKersebaum, Kurt-ChristianMüller, ChristophNaresh Kumar, SooraNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Osborne, Tom M.Palosuo, TaruPriesack, EckartRipoche, DominiqueSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiSteduto, PasqualeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck ISupit, IwanTao, FuluTravasso, MariaWaha, KatharinaWallach, DanielWhite, Jeffrey W.Williams, JimmyWolf, Joost[Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations]Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: Field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations
Misselhorn, A.Challinor, Andrew J.Jones, J.Plocq-Fichelet, V.Schaldach, R.Thornton, Philip K.[Surprises and Possibilities: Addressing Risk in Food Systems]Surprises and Possibilities: Addressing Risk in Food Systems

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK c...


Wesselink AChallinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Beven, K.Allen IHanlon HLópez, A.Lorenz SOtto FMorse, AndyRye CSaux-Picard SStainforth DSuckling E[Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review]Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The review by H. C. J. Godfray et al. (12 February, p. 812) and the rest of the special section on Food Security call for a multifaceted approach to future global food security. We would like to emphasize three agricultural issues that were lacking


Porter JRChallinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankFalloon, P.Fischer TGregory PIttersum, Martin K. vanOlesen, J.E.Moore KJRosenzweig, CynthiaSmith, Pete[Food security: focus on agriculture]Food security: focus on agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could h...


Faloon, PBebber, DBushell, MChallinor, Andrew J.Dessai, S.Gurr, SKöhler, Ann-Kristin[Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture]Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

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