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Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect...


Hawkins EOsborne, Tom M.Ho CKChallinor, Andrew J.[Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe]Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agri...


Ju HErda, LinWheeler, TimChallinor, Andrew J.Jiang S[Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield]Climate Change Modelling and its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, th...


Hawkins EHo CKOsborne, Tom M.Fricker TEFerro CATChallinor, Andrew J.[Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s]Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s
Liu, BingAsseng, SentholdMüller, ChristophEwert, FrankElliott, JoshuaLobell, David B.Martre, PierreRuane, Alex C.Wallach, DanielJones, James W.Rosenzweig, CynthiaAggarwal, Pramod K.Alderman, Phillip D.Anothai, JakaratBasso, BrunoBiernath, ChristianCammarano, DavideChallinor, Andrew J.Deryng, DelphineSanctis, Giacomo deDoltra, JordiFereres, EliasFolberth, ChristianGarcía Vila, MargaritaGayler, SebastianHoogenboom, GerritHunt, Leslie A.Izaurralde, Roberto CésarJabloun, MohamedJones, Curtis D.Kersebaum, Kurt-ChristianKimball, Bruce A.Köhler, Ann-KristinKumar, Soora NareshNendel, ClaasO'Leary, Garry J.Olesen, J.E.Ottman, Michael J.Palosuo, TaruPrasad, P. V. VaraPriesack, EckartPugh, Thomas A. M.Reynolds, Matthew P.Rezaei, Ehsan EyshiRötter, Reimund P.Schmid, ErwinSemenov, Mikhail A.Shcherbak, IuriiStehfest, ElkeStöckle, Claudio O.Stratonovitch, PierreStreck, ThiloSupit, IwanTao, FuluThorburn, Peter J.Waha, KatharinaWall, Gerard W.Wang, EnliWhite, Jeffrey W.Wolf, JoostZhao, ZhiganZhu, Yan[Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods]Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have ...


Yang, HuiyiDobbie, StevenRamírez Villegas, JuliánFeng, KuishuangChallinor, Andrew J.Chen, BingGao, YaoLee, LindsayYin, YanSun, LaixiangWatson, JamesKöhler, Ann-KristinFan, TingtingGhosh, Sat[Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut]Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut
Wallach, DanielThorburn, Peter J.Asseng, SentholdChallinor, Andrew J.Ewert, FrankJones, James W.Rotter, Reimund P.Ruane, Alex C.[Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?]Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?

Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis...


Challinor, Andrew J.Parkes BRamírez Villegas, Julián[Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity]Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and...


Challinor, Andrew J.Watson, J.Lobell, David B.Howden SMSmith, D.R.Chhetri, Netra[A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation]A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Sou...


Iizumi TLuo JChallinor, Andrew J.Sakurai GYokozawa MSakuma HBrown, M.E.Yamagata T[Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops]Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

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