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This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. Th...


Vervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaMason-D'Croz, DanielEricksen, Polly J.Thornton, Philip K.Kristjanson, Patricia M.Förch, WiebkeHerrero, Mario T.Havlík, PetrJost, ChristineRowlands, H.[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios
Nelson, Gerald C.Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Havlík, PetrAhammad, H.Deryng, DelphineElliott JFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLampe M. vonLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMüller, ChristophPopp, AlexanderRobertson, Richard D.Robinson, ShermanSchmid, ErwinSchmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejWillenbockel, Dirk[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...


Nelson, Gerald C.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCalvin, KatherineHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannLampe M. vonMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMüller, ChristophReilly JRobertson, Richard D.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejTakahashi, K.Valin, HugoWillenbockel, Dirk[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partia...


Robinson, ShermanMeijl, Hans vanWillenbockel, DirkValin, HugoFujimori, ShinichiroMasui TSands, Ronald D.Wise, MarshallCalvin, KatherineHavlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielTabeau, AndrzejKavallari, AikateriniSchmitz, ChristophDietrich, Jan PhilippLampe M. von[Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system]Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...


Schmitz, ChristophMeijl, Hans vanKyle, PageNelson, Gerald C.Fujimori, ShinichiroGurgel, AngeloHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaMason-D'Croz, DanielPopp, AlexanderSands, Ronald D.Tabeau, AndrzejMensbrugghe, Dominique van derLampe M. vonWise, MarshallBlanc, ElodieHasegawa, TomokoKavallari, AikateriniValin, Hugo[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Lampe M. vonWillenbockel, DirkAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCai, YongxiaCalvin, KatherineFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielNelson, Gerald C.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejValin, HugoMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMeijl, Hans van[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Blümmel, MichaelHaileslassie, AmareHerrero, Mario T.Beveridge, MalcolmPhillips, M.Havlík, Petr[Feed resources vis-à-vis livestock and fish productivity in a changing climate]Feed resources vis-à-vis livestock and fish productivity in a changing climate

100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are used almost universally to compare emissions of greenhouse gases in national inventories and reduction targets. GWPs have been criticised on several grounds, but little work has been done to determine global mitigation costs under alternative physics-...


Reisinger, AndyHavlík, PetrRiahi KVliet, O. vanObersteiner, MichaelHerrero, Mario T.[Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture]Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Proje...


Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derNelson, Gerald C.Ahammad, H.Blanc, ElodieBodirsky, Benjamin L.Fujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageMason-D'Croz, DanielPaltsev SRolinski STabeau, AndrzejMeijl, Hans vanLampe M. vonWillenbockel, Dirk[The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models]The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

The dual relationship existing between land-based activities and climate change has long been established. Land-based activities are responsible for about 30% (IPCC) of global GHG emissions and are at the same time particularly impacted by climate change as they are strongly dependent on weather ...


Dumollard, G.Havlík, PetrHerrero, Mario T.[Climate change, agriculture and food security: a comparative review of global modelling approaches]Climate change, agriculture and food security: a comparative review of global modelling approaches

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