The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scienti...
Msangi, Siwa
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Enahoro, Dolapo K.
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Magnan, Nicholas
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Notenbaert, An Maria Omer
,
Nelgen, Signe
,
[Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT]
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Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narrativ...
Oliver, Fricko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Rogelj, Joeri
,
Klimont, Zbigniew
,
Gusti, Mykola
,
Johnson, Nils
,
Kolp, Peter
,
Strubegger, Manfred
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Amann, Markus
,
Ermolieva, Tatiana
,
Forsell, Nicklas
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Heyes, Chris
,
Kindermann, Georg
,
Krey, Volker
,
McCollum, David L.
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
Pachauri, Shonali
,
Rao, Shilpa
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Schoepp, Wolfgang
,
Riahi, Keywan
,
[The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century]
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The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibri...
Valin, Hugo
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Mosnier, Aline
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
[Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?]
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Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, a...
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Deryng, Delphine
,
Elliott J
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lampe M. von
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Robertson, Richard D.
,
Robinson, Sherman
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]
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Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP21), a voluntary action plan, the ‘4 per 1000 Initiative: Soils for Food Security and Climate’ was proposed under the Agenda for Action. The Initiative underlines the role of soil organic matter (SOM) in ...
Soussana, Jean-François
,
Lutfalla, Suzanne
,
Ehrhardt, Fiona
,
Rosenstock, Todd S.
,
Lammana, Christine
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Richards, Meryl
,
Wollenberg, Eva K.
,
Chotte, Jean-Luc
,
Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.
,
Ciais, Philippe
,
Smith, Pete
,
Lal, Rattan
,
[Matching policy and science: Rationale for the ‘4 per 1000 - soils for food security and climate’ initiative]
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Matching policy and science: Rationale for the ‘4 per 1000 - soils for food security and climate’ initiative
Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
Islam, Shahnila
,
Lord S
,
Helfgott, Ariella E.S.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Peou R
,
Sassen M
,
Veeger, Marieke
,
Soesbergen, A. van
,
Arnell, A.P.
,
Stuch B
,
Arslan, A.
,
Lipper, Leslie
,
[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]
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Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly conside...
Schneider, Uwe
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Mosnier, Aline
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
Böttcher, Hannes
,
Skalský, Rastislav
,
Balkovič, Juraj
,
Sauer, Timm
,
Fritz, Steffen
,
[Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption]
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Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Lampe M. von
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Reilly J
,
Robertson, Richard D.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Takahashi, K.
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]
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Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partia...
Robinson, Sherman
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Masui T
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Wise, Marshall
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Kavallari, Aikaterini
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Dietrich, Jan Philipp
,
Lampe M. von
,
[Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system]
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Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Kyle, Page
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Gurgel, Angelo
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Lampe M. von
,
Wise, Marshall
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Kavallari, Aikaterini
,
Valin, Hugo
,
[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]
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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison