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This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. Th...


Vervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaMason-D'Croz, DanielEricksen, Polly J.Thornton, Philip K.Kristjanson, Patricia M.Förch, WiebkeHerrero, Mario T.Havlík, PetrJost, ChristineRowlands, H.[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key d...


Palazzo, AmandaRutting, LucasZougmoré, Robert B.Vervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrJalloh, AbdulaiAubee, ErnstHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaEricksen, Polly J.Segda, ZénabouMoussa, Abdoulaye S.Bayala, JulesKadi Kadi, Hame A.Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.Thornton, Philip K.Valin, Hugo[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantifie...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, Shahnila[Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis]Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

Concerns exist regarding potential trade-offs between climate change mitigation in agriculture and food security. Against this background, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) is applied to a range of scenarios of mitigation of emissions from agriculture to assess the implications of c...


Kleinwechter, U.Levesque AHavlík, PetrForsell NZhang YFricko OObersteiner, Michael[Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture]Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture
Oliver, FrickoHavlík, PetrRogelj, JoeriKlimont, ZbigniewGusti, MykolaJohnson, NilsKolp, PeterStrubegger, ManfredValin, HugoAmann, MarkusErmolieva, TatianaForsell, NicklasHerrero, Mario T.Heyes, ChrisKindermann, GeorgKrey, VolkerMcCollum, David L.Obersteiner, MichaelPachauri, ShonaliRao, ShilpaSchmid, ErwinSchoepp, WolfgangRiahi, Keywan[The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century]The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibri...


Valin, HugoHavlík, PetrMosnier, AlineHerrero, Mario T.Schmid, ErwinObersteiner, Michael[Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?]Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?

Carbon price policies deliver cost-efficient mitigation across sectors, but can result in tradeoffs with food security and other sustainable development goals. Scenarios for a 1.5 °C world based on carbon prices could increase the undernourished population by 80 - 300 million in 2050. Applying a ...


Frank, StefanHavlík, PetrValin, HugoWollenberg, Eva K.Hasegawa, TomokoObersteiner, Michael[Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?]Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP21), a voluntary action plan, the ‘4 per 1000 Initiative: Soils for Food Security and Climate’ was proposed under the Agenda for Action. The Initiative underlines the role of soil organic matter (SOM) in ...


Soussana, Jean-FrançoisLutfalla, SuzanneEhrhardt, FionaRosenstock, Todd S.Lammana, ChristineHavlík, PetrRichards, MerylWollenberg, Eva K.Chotte, Jean-LucTorquebiau, Emmanuel F.Ciais, PhilippeSmith, PeteLal, Rattan[Matching policy and science: Rationale for the ‘4 per 1000 - soils for food security and climate’ initiative]Matching policy and science: Rationale for the ‘4 per 1000 - soils for food security and climate’ initiative

The presentation addresses how reducing agricultural GHG emissions impacts food security, and what the trade-offs are. Presentation given by Stefan Frank at the European Geosciences Union conference on 24 April 2017.


Frank, StefanHavlík, PetrSoussana, Jean-FrancoisLevesque, AValin, HugoWollenberg, Eva K.Kleinwechter, U.Fricko, OliverGusti, MykolaHerrero, Mario T.Smith, P.Hasegawa, T.Kraxner, FlorianObersteiner, Michael[Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?]Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

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