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The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantifie...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, Shahnila[Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis]Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...


Nelson, Gerald C.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCalvin, KatherineHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannLampe M. vonMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMüller, ChristophReilly JRobertson, Richard D.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejTakahashi, K.Valin, HugoWillenbockel, Dirk[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partia...


Robinson, ShermanMeijl, Hans vanWillenbockel, DirkValin, HugoFujimori, ShinichiroMasui TSands, Ronald D.Wise, MarshallCalvin, KatherineHavlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielTabeau, AndrzejKavallari, AikateriniSchmitz, ChristophDietrich, Jan PhilippLampe M. von[Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system]Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...


Schmitz, ChristophMeijl, Hans vanKyle, PageNelson, Gerald C.Fujimori, ShinichiroGurgel, AngeloHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaMason-D'Croz, DanielPopp, AlexanderSands, Ronald D.Tabeau, AndrzejMensbrugghe, Dominique van derLampe M. vonWise, MarshallBlanc, ElodieHasegawa, TomokoKavallari, AikateriniValin, Hugo[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Lampe M. vonWillenbockel, DirkAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCai, YongxiaCalvin, KatherineFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielNelson, Gerald C.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejValin, HugoMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMeijl, Hans van[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Proje...


Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derNelson, Gerald C.Ahammad, H.Blanc, ElodieBodirsky, Benjamin L.Fujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageMason-D'Croz, DanielPaltsev SRolinski STabeau, AndrzejMeijl, Hans vanLampe M. vonWillenbockel, Dirk[The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models]The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic mode...


Lotze-Campen, HermannKyle, PageLampe M. vonHavlík, PetrMeijl, Hans vanHasegawa, TomokoPopp, AlexanderSchmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejValin, HugoWillenbockel, DirkWise, MarshallFujimori, Shinichiro[Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison]Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

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