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Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect...


Hawkins EOsborne, Tom M.Ho CKChallinor, Andrew J.[Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe]Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, th...


Hawkins EHo CKOsborne, Tom M.Fricker TEFerro CATChallinor, Andrew J.[Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s]Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input t...


Köhler, Ann-KristinChallinor, Andrew J.Hawkins EAsseng, Senthold[Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability]Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

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