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This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. Th...


Vervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaMason-D'Croz, DanielEricksen, Polly J.Thornton, Philip K.Kristjanson, Patricia M.Förch, WiebkeHerrero, Mario T.Havlík, PetrJost, ChristineRowlands, H.[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios
Shah DJoshi PKNelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future]Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future
Nelson, Gerald C.Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Havlík, PetrAhammad, H.Deryng, DelphineElliott JFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLampe M. vonLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMüller, ChristophPopp, AlexanderRobertson, Richard D.Robinson, ShermanSchmid, ErwinSchmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejWillenbockel, Dirk[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks

Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate ch...


Ye LTang HWu, WenliangYang PNelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2...


Takle ESGustafson DBeachy, Roger N.Nelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[US food security and climate change: agricultural futures]US food security and climate change: agricultural futures

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...


Nelson, Gerald C.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCalvin, KatherineHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannLampe M. vonMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMüller, ChristophReilly JRobertson, Richard D.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejTakahashi, K.Valin, HugoWillenbockel, Dirk[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partia...


Robinson, ShermanMeijl, Hans vanWillenbockel, DirkValin, HugoFujimori, ShinichiroMasui TSands, Ronald D.Wise, MarshallCalvin, KatherineHavlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielTabeau, AndrzejKavallari, AikateriniSchmitz, ChristophDietrich, Jan PhilippLampe M. von[Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system]Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...


Schmitz, ChristophMeijl, Hans vanKyle, PageNelson, Gerald C.Fujimori, ShinichiroGurgel, AngeloHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaMason-D'Croz, DanielPopp, AlexanderSands, Ronald D.Tabeau, AndrzejMensbrugghe, Dominique van derLampe M. vonWise, MarshallBlanc, ElodieHasegawa, TomokoKavallari, AikateriniValin, Hugo[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Lampe M. vonWillenbockel, DirkAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCai, YongxiaCalvin, KatherineFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielNelson, Gerald C.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejValin, HugoMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMeijl, Hans van[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong wa...


Dube, SikhalazoScholes, Robert J.Nelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures

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