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Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of th...


Stehfest, ElkeZeist, Willem-Jan vanValin, HugoHavlik, PetrPopp, AlexanderKyle, PageTabeau, AndrzejMason-D'Croz, DanielHasegawa, TomokoBodirsky, Benjamin L.Calvin, KatherineDoelman, Jonathan CFujimori, ShinichiroHumpenöder, FlorianLotze-Campen, HermannMeijl, Hans vanWiebe, Keith[Key determinants of global land-use projections]Key determinants of global land-use projections

This paper investigates how climate change can affect agricultural production and proposes some adaptation measures that could be undertaken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change while enhancing the positive ones. The paper stresses the importance of planned adaptation measures and h...


Ignaciuk AMason-D'Croz, Daniel[Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture]Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture

Despite substantial decreases in the rate of global undernutrition over the past few decades, a large global burden of disease associated with deficits in intake of protein, iron, zinc, and other nutrients remains. Additionally, progress in decreasing undernutrition has stagnated or deteriorated ...


Beach, Robert H.Sulser, Timothy BCrimmins, AllisonCenacchi, NicolaCole, JeffersonFukagawa, Naomi KMason-D'Croz, DanielMyers, SamuelSarofim, Marcus CSmith, MatthewZiska, Lewis H[Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study]Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study

The objective of this handbook is to guide policy makers and practitioners from the public, private and research sector in the development and use of scenarios to support the inclusive formulation of policies and other decision-making processes related to complex issues taking place in changing e...


Veeger, MariekeMason-D'Croz, DanielDunston, ShahnilaVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, Amanda[Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America]Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-off...


Soesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Sassen MStuch BSchaldach RGöpel, J.Vervoort, Joost M.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaPalazzo, Amanda[Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment]Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national le...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Mason-D'Croz, DanielRutting, LucasHavlík, PetrIslam, ShahnilaBayala, JulesValin, HugoKadi Kadi, Hame A.Thornton, Philip K.[Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context]Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

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