Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, a...
Nelson, Gerald C.
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Valin, Hugo
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Sands, Ronald D.
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Havlík, Petr
,
Ahammad, H.
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Deryng, Delphine
,
Elliott J
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Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lampe M. von
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
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Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Robertson, Richard D.
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Robinson, Sherman
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Schmid, Erwin
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Schmitz, Christoph
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Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
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[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]
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Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate ch...
Ye L
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Tang H
,
Wu, Wenliang
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Yang P
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Nelson, Gerald C.
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Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
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Palazzo, Amanda
,
[Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]
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Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures
Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2...
Takle ES
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Gustafson D
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Beachy, Roger N.
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Nelson, Gerald C.
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Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
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Palazzo, Amanda
,
[US food security and climate change: agricultural futures]
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US food security and climate change: agricultural futures
This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as p...
Nelson, Gerald C.
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Shively GE
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[Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue]
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Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...
Nelson, Gerald C.
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Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
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Ahammad, H.
,
Blanc, Elodie
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Calvin, Katherine
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Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Lampe M. von
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Müller, Christoph
,
Reilly J
,
Robertson, Richard D.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Takahashi, K.
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Valin, Hugo
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]
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Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive compar...
Schmitz, Christoph
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Meijl, Hans van
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Kyle, Page
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
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Fujimori, Shinichiro
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Gurgel, Angelo
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Lampe M. von
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Wise, Marshall
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Blanc, Elodie
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
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Kavallari, Aikaterini
,
Valin, Hugo
,
[Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison]
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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
When politicians fail to agree, very often it is the poorest who suffer most. More than 25 million additional children could go hungry through the failure of Copenhagen, says Gerald C. Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute. As crop yields decline, the calories available per p...
Nelson, Gerald C.
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[The perfect storm: food security and nutrition under climate change]
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The perfect storm: food security and nutrition under climate change
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with ...
Lampe M. von
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Willenbockel, Dirk
,
Ahammad, H.
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Blanc, Elodie
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Cai, Yongxia
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]
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Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong wa...
Global climate change presents long-term risks to agriculture. In general, global climate change is expected to positively affect Russian agriculture. In high and middle latitudes, global warming would expand the growing season. Acreages of agricultural crops may expand toward the north, although...
Kiselev S
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Romashkin R
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Nelson, Gerald C.
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Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
[Russia's food security and climate change: looking into the future]
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Russia's food security and climate change: looking into the future