The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff bet...
Challinor, Andrew J.
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Osborne, Tom M.
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Shaffrey, Len
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Weller, Hilary
,
Morse, Andy
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Wheeler, Tim
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Vidale, Pier Luigi
,
[Methods and resources for climate impacts research]
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Methods and resources for climate impacts research
Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect...
Hawkins E
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Osborne, Tom M.
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Ho CK
,
Challinor, Andrew J.
,
[Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe]
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Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe
Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, th...
Hawkins E
,
Ho CK
,
Osborne, Tom M.
,
Fricker TE
,
Ferro CAT
,
Challinor, Andrew J.
,
[Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s]
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Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s
The analogues approach, developed by CCAFS in R programming, is a novel way of supporting
climate and crop models with on-the-ground empirical testing. In essence, the analogues tool
connects sites with statistically similar (‘analogous’) climates, across space (i.e. between
locations) and/or ...