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The first decade of the 21st century has seen several harbingers of a troubled future for global food security. The food price spike of 2008, with its consequent food riots and resulting political changes in several countries, awoke the world’s leaders to the re-emergence of this threat to human ...


Nelson, Gerald C.Rosegrant, Mark W.Palazzo, AmandaGray IIngersoll CRobertson, Richard D.Tokgoz SZhu, T.Sulser TBRingler, ClaudiaMsangi SYou, Liangzhi[Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options]Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options

This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. Th...


Vervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaMason-D'Croz, DanielEricksen, Polly J.Thornton, Philip K.Kristjanson, Patricia M.Förch, WiebkeHerrero, Mario T.Havlík, PetrJost, ChristineRowlands, H.[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key d...


Palazzo, AmandaRutting, LucasZougmoré, Robert B.Vervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrJalloh, AbdulaiAubee, ErnstHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaEricksen, Polly J.Segda, ZénabouMoussa, Abdoulaye S.Bayala, JulesKadi Kadi, Hame A.Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.Thornton, Philip K.Valin, Hugo[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantifie...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, Shahnila[Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis]Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis
Shah DJoshi PKNelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future]Indian food security and climate change: agriculture future

Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate ch...


Ye LTang HWu, WenliangYang PNelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures]Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures

The objective of this handbook is to guide policy makers and practitioners from the public, private and research sector in the development and use of scenarios to support the inclusive formulation of policies and other decision-making processes related to complex issues taking place in changing e...


Veeger, MariekeMason-D'Croz, DanielDunston, ShahnilaVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, Amanda[Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America]Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2...


Takle ESGustafson DBeachy, Roger N.Nelson, Gerald C.Mason-D'Croz, DanielPalazzo, Amanda[US food security and climate change: agricultural futures]US food security and climate change: agricultural futures

Herrero, Mario T.Havlík, PetrMcIntire, John M.Palazzo, AmandaValin, Hugo[L’avenir de l’élevage africain : Réaliser le potentiel de l’élevage pour la sécurité alimentaire, la réduction de la pauvreté et la protection de l’environnement en Afrique sub- saharienne]L’avenir de l’élevage africain : Réaliser le potentiel de l’élevage pour la sécurité alimentaire, la réduction de la pauvreté et la protection de l’environnement en Afrique sub- saharienne

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