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Many types of analysis require rainfall data, which must often be generated to overcome limitations in the historical record. The ability to model outlying rainfall years satisfactorily is particularly important in risk studies. We describe a rainfall generator with this ability, based on a third...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model]Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model

The contemporary concern about anthropogenic release of greenhouse gas (GHG) into the environment and the contribution of livestock to this phenomenon have sparked animal scientists’ interest in predicting methane (CH4) emissions by ruminants. Focusing on milk production, we address six basic nut...


Tedeschi, L.O.Herrero, Mario T.Thornton, Philip K.[An Overview of Dairy Cattle Models for Predicting Milk Production: Their Evolution, Evaluation, and Application for the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Livestock.]An Overview of Dairy Cattle Models for Predicting Milk Production: Their Evolution, Evaluation, and Application for the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Livestock.

The workshop entitled: ‘Farm-household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and mitigation: a way forward’ focused on identifying the current strengths and weaknesses of farm and household-level models, and laying out practical pathways to improve th...


Wijk, Mark T. vanRufino, Mariana C.Thornton, Philip K.[Workshop report: Farm-household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and mitigation: a way forward]Workshop report: Farm-household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and mitigation: a way forward

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Thornton, Philip K.Jarvis, Andy[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

To effectively adapt to climate change, farmers, governments, and other stakeholders must understand the potential effects on crop and livestock production.


Thornton, Philip K.[Impacts of Climate Change on length of growing period.]Impacts of Climate Change on length of growing period.

A major challenge for contemporary conservation policies and practices is formulating workable compromises between wildlife conservation and the people who live with wildlife. We strongly support the view that anthropology has a critical role to play in contributing to our understanding of human-...


Galvin, K.A.Thornton, Philip K.Pinho, J.R. deSunderland, J.Boone, Randall B.[Integrated modeling and its potential for resolving conflicts between conservation and people in the rangelands of East Africa]Integrated modeling and its potential for resolving conflicts between conservation and people in the rangelands of East Africa

Pastoral communities in East Africa are facing considerable challenges arising from shifts in land tenure policy from communal to individual landholdings and high human population growth rates. Over the last 30 years, livestock-to-human ratios have generally declined to levels that will no longer...


Thornton, Philip K.BurnSilver, S.B.Boone, Randall B.Galvin, K.A.[Modelling the impacts of group ranch subdivision on agro-pastoral households in Kajiado, Kenya]Modelling the impacts of group ranch subdivision on agro-pastoral households in Kajiado, Kenya

A dynamic agriucltural land-use model based on a Markov process and governed by a few simple decision rules is described. Currently, the model is purely conceptual, and was designed with one objective: to investigate the possibility of constructing top-down land-use models based on as few process...


Thornton, Philip K.Jones, Peter G.[A conceptual approach to dynamic land-use modelling]A conceptual approach to dynamic land-use modelling

Well-tested computer simulation models of the growth, development, and yield of annual crops are being used for a wide range of purposes, including the prediction of impacts of different management practices and land use systems on food production, farmers' profitability, and the environment. Pr...


Thornton, Philip K.Booltink, H.W.G.Stoorvogel, J.J.[A computer program for geostatistical and spatial analysis of crop model outputs]A computer program for geostatistical and spatial analysis of crop model outputs

The major objectives of this workshop are to sharpen the focus of ILRI's ecoregional research, to further identify commonalities in tools and new methods that can enable ILRI to do effective transregional research, and to identify improvements to the way in which ILRI does ecoregional research. P...


Thornton, Philip K.Odero, A.N.[Ecoregional research at ILRI: Proceedings of a workshop]Ecoregional research at ILRI: Proceedings of a workshop

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