Many types of analysis require rainfall data, which must often be generated to overcome limitations in the historical record. The ability to model outlying rainfall years satisfactorily is particularly important in risk studies. We describe a rainfall generator with this ability, based on a third...
Jones, Peter G.
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Thornton, Philip K.
,
[Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model]
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Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model
Climate-smart interventions in agriculture have varying costs and environmental and economic impacts. Their implementation requires appropriate investment decisions by policy makers that are relevant for current as well as future scenarios of agro-ecology, climate and economic development. Decisi...
Aggarwal, Pramod K.
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Thornton, Philip K.
,
Dunnett, Alex
,
Shirsath, Paresh B.
,
Joshi, Pramod K.
,
Pal, Barun D
,
Khatri-Chhetri, Arun
,
Ghosh, Joydeep
,
[Multi-objective land use allocation modelling for prioritizing climate-smart agricultural interventions]
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Multi-objective land use allocation modelling for prioritizing climate-smart agricultural interventions
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is widely promoted as an approach for reorienting agricultural development under the realities of climate change. Prioritising research-for-development activities is crucial, given the need to utilise scarce resources as effectively as possible. However, no framewo...
Thornton, Philip K.
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Whitbread, Anthony M.
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Baedeker, Tobias
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Cairns, Jill E.
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Claessens, Lieven
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Baethgen, Walter E.
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Bunn, Christian
,
Friedmann, Michael
,
Giller, Ken E.
,
Herrero, Mario T.
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Howden, Mark
,
Kilcline, Kevin
,
Nangia, Vinay
,
Ramírez Villegas, Julián
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Kumar, Shalander
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West, Paul C.
,
Keating, Brian
,
[A framework for priority-setting in climate smart agriculture research]
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A framework for priority-setting in climate smart agriculture research
Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼450...
Aggarwal, Pramod K.
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Vyas, Shalika
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Thornton, Philip K.
,
Campbell, Bruce M.
,
Kropff, Martin
,
[Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture]
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Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
Kristjanson, Patricia M.
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Harvey, Blane
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Epp, Marissa van
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Thornton, Philip K.
,
[Social learning and sustainable development]
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Social learning and sustainable development
The impacts of climate change on crop yields, as projected by a slew of impact assessments carried out since the 1980s, have brought the issue of future food insecurity to the fore. A meta-analysis of ~27,000 data points from studies published over the last four decades reveals that at country le...
Aggarwal, Pramod K.
,
Vyas, Shalika
,
Thornton, Philip K.
,
Campbell, Bruce M.
,
[How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century?]
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How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century?
Agricultural research for development has made important contributions to poverty reduction and food security
over the last 40 years. Nevertheless, it is likely that both the speed of global change and its impacts on natural and
socio-economic systems are being under-estimated. Coupled with the m...
Thornton, Philip K.
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Schuetz, Tonya
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Förch, Wiebke
,
Cramer, Laura
,
Abreu, David
,
Vermeulen, Sonja J.
,
Campbell, Bruce M.
,
[Responding to global change: A theory of change approach to making agricultural research for development outcome-based]
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Responding to global change: A theory of change approach to making agricultural research for development outcome-based
Thornton, Philip K.
,
Vermeulen, Sonja J.
,
Zougmoré, Robert B.
,
Kinyangi, James
,
Kristjanson, Patricia M.
,
[Climate change, agriculture and food security: linking research and action in East and West Africa]
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Climate change, agriculture and food security: linking research and action in East and West Africa
Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change
science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly
sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and
long-term outlooks for agricultural...
Ramírez Villegas, Julián
,
Challinor, Andrew J.
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Thornton, Philip K.
,
Jarvis, Andy
,
[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]
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Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research
Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places....
Thornton, Philip K.
,
Jones, Peter G.
,
Ericksen, Polly J.
,
Challinor, Andrew J.
,
[Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world]
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Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world