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Kristjanson, Patricia M.Harvey, BlaneEpp, Marissa vanThornton, Philip K.[Social learning and sustainable development]Social learning and sustainable development

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Thornton, Philip K.Jarvis, Andy[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.


Challinor, Andrew J.Martre, PierreAsseng, SentholdThornton, Philip K.Ewert, Frank[Making the most of climate impacts ensembles]Making the most of climate impacts ensembles

Mixed crop–livestock systems are the backbone of African agriculture, providing food security and livelihood options for hundreds of millions of people. Much is known about the impacts of climate change on the crop enterprises in the mixed systems, and some, although less, on the livestock enterp...


Thornton, Philip K.Herrero, Mario T.[Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa]Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

A software package to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa is described. The program is based on a stochastic weather generator that uses a third-order Markov process to model daily weather data. The model has been fitted to data from more than 9200 stations with long runs of ...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[MarkSim: Software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa]MarkSim: Software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa

International research for development is under increasing pressure to demonstrate development outcomes that enhance people’s food security and well-being while preserving the natural resource base. The CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) integrates t...


Förch, WiebkeKristjanson, Patricia M.Cramer, LauraBarahona, C.Thornton, Philip K.[Back to baselines: measuring change and sharing data]Back to baselines: measuring change and sharing data

Mixed crop‐livestock systems produce most of the world’s milk and ruminant meat, and are particularly important for the livelihoods and food security of poor people in developing countries. These systems will bear the brunt of helping to satisfy the burgeoning demand for food from increasing popu...


Thornton, Philip K.Herrero, Mario T.[Climate change adaptation in mixed crop‐livestock systems in developing countries]Climate change adaptation in mixed crop‐livestock systems in developing countries

The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily wea...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055]The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055

Food security is a key global concern. By 2050, the global population will exceed 9 billion, and a 50% increase in annual agricultural output will be required to keep up with demand. There are significant additional pressures on existing agricultural land through increased competition from the bi...


Fritz, SteffenSee, LindaYou, LiangzhiJustice, ChrisBecker-Reshef, InbalBydekerke, LievenCumani, RenatoDefourny, PierreFoley, JonGilliams, SvenGong, PengHansen, MatthewHertel, Thomas W.Herold, MartinHerrero, Mario T.Kayitakire, FrancoisLatham JLeo OMcCallum, IanObersteiner, MichaelRamankutty NRocha JTang HThornton, Philip K.Vancutsem CVelde, M. van derWood SWoodcock C[The need for improved maps of global cropland]The need for improved maps of global cropland

A procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces is described. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that ...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climatic surfaces]Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climatic surfaces

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