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Many types of analysis require rainfall data, which must often be generated to overcome limitations in the historical record. The ability to model outlying rainfall years satisfactorily is particularly important in risk studies. We describe a rainfall generator with this ability, based on a third...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model]Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural...


Ramírez Villegas, JuliánChallinor, Andrew J.Thornton, Philip K.Jarvis, Andy[Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research]Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

A major challenge for contemporary conservation policies and practices is formulating workable compromises between wildlife conservation and the people who live with wildlife. We strongly support the view that anthropology has a critical role to play in contributing to our understanding of human-...


Galvin, K.A.Thornton, Philip K.Pinho, J.R. deSunderland, J.Boone, Randall B.[Integrated modeling and its potential for resolving conflicts between conservation and people in the rangelands of East Africa]Integrated modeling and its potential for resolving conflicts between conservation and people in the rangelands of East Africa

Pastoral communities in East Africa are facing considerable challenges arising from shifts in land tenure policy from communal to individual landholdings and high human population growth rates. Over the last 30 years, livestock-to-human ratios have generally declined to levels that will no longer...


Thornton, Philip K.BurnSilver, S.B.Boone, Randall B.Galvin, K.A.[Modelling the impacts of group ranch subdivision on agro-pastoral households in Kajiado, Kenya]Modelling the impacts of group ranch subdivision on agro-pastoral households in Kajiado, Kenya

A dynamic agriucltural land-use model based on a Markov process and governed by a few simple decision rules is described. Currently, the model is purely conceptual, and was designed with one objective: to investigate the possibility of constructing top-down land-use models based on as few process...


Thornton, Philip K.Jones, Peter G.[A conceptual approach to dynamic land-use modelling]A conceptual approach to dynamic land-use modelling

Well-tested computer simulation models of the growth, development, and yield of annual crops are being used for a wide range of purposes, including the prediction of impacts of different management practices and land use systems on food production, farmers' profitability, and the environment. Pr...


Thornton, Philip K.Booltink, H.W.G.Stoorvogel, J.J.[A computer program for geostatistical and spatial analysis of crop model outputs]A computer program for geostatistical and spatial analysis of crop model outputs

This study uses heteroskedastic Tobit and Censored Least Absolute Deviations models to examine the impacts of dairy cow ownership on selected outcomes for a sample of 184 households in coastal Kenya. The outcomes examined include gross household cash income, gross non-agricultural income, consump...


Nicholson, C.Thornton, Philip K.Muinga, R.W.[Household-level impacts of dairy cow ownership in coastal Kenya]Household-level impacts of dairy cow ownership in coastal Kenya

A software package to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa is described. The program is based on a stochastic weather generator that uses a third-order Markov process to model daily weather data. The model has been fitted to data from more than 9200 stations with long runs of ...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[MarkSim: Software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa]MarkSim: Software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa

East Africa contains areas with some of the greatest large mammal biodiversity on the planet. These areas are key natural resources for the economic development of the region. They are also key areas for pastoralists who have co-existed with wildlife for millennia. Increasing populations, conflic...


Thornton, Philip K.Galvin, K.A.Boone, Randall B.[An agro-pastoral household model for the rangelands of East Africa]An agro-pastoral household model for the rangelands of East Africa

The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily wea...


Jones, Peter G.Thornton, Philip K.[The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055]The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055

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