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This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key d...


Palazzo, AmandaRutting, LucasZougmoré, Robert B.Vervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrJalloh, AbdulaiAubee, ErnstHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaEricksen, Polly J.Segda, ZénabouMoussa, Abdoulaye S.Bayala, JulesKadi Kadi, Hame A.Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.Thornton, Philip K.Valin, Hugo[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios
Oliver, FrickoHavlík, PetrRogelj, JoeriKlimont, ZbigniewGusti, MykolaJohnson, NilsKolp, PeterStrubegger, ManfredValin, HugoAmann, MarkusErmolieva, TatianaForsell, NicklasHerrero, Mario T.Heyes, ChrisKindermann, GeorgKrey, VolkerMcCollum, David L.Obersteiner, MichaelPachauri, ShonaliRao, ShilpaSchmid, ErwinSchoepp, WolfgangRiahi, Keywan[The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century]The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibri...


Valin, HugoHavlík, PetrMosnier, AlineHerrero, Mario T.Schmid, ErwinObersteiner, Michael[Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?]Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?
Nelson, Gerald C.Valin, HugoSands, Ronald D.Havlík, PetrAhammad, H.Deryng, DelphineElliott JFujimori, ShinichiroHasegawa, TomokoHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLampe M. vonLotze-Campen, HermannMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMensbrugghe, Dominique van derMüller, ChristophPopp, AlexanderRobertson, Richard D.Robinson, ShermanSchmid, ErwinSchmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejWillenbockel, Dirk[Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks]Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks

Carbon price policies deliver cost-efficient mitigation across sectors, but can result in tradeoffs with food security and other sustainable development goals. Scenarios for a 1.5 °C world based on carbon prices could increase the undernourished population by 80 - 300 million in 2050. Applying a ...


Frank, StefanHavlík, PetrValin, HugoWollenberg, Eva K.Hasegawa, TomokoObersteiner, Michael[Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?]Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?

The presentation addresses how reducing agricultural GHG emissions impacts food security, and what the trade-offs are. Presentation given by Stefan Frank at the European Geosciences Union conference on 24 April 2017.


Frank, StefanHavlík, PetrSoussana, Jean-FrancoisLevesque, AValin, HugoWollenberg, Eva K.Kleinwechter, U.Fricko, OliverGusti, MykolaHerrero, Mario T.Smith, P.Hasegawa, T.Kraxner, FlorianObersteiner, Michael[Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?]Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of th...


Stehfest, ElkeZeist, Willem-Jan vanValin, HugoHavlik, PetrPopp, AlexanderKyle, PageTabeau, AndrzejMason-D'Croz, DanielHasegawa, TomokoBodirsky, Benjamin L.Calvin, KatherineDoelman, Jonathan CFujimori, ShinichiroHumpenöder, FlorianLotze-Campen, HermannMeijl, Hans vanWiebe, Keith[Key determinants of global land-use projections]Key determinants of global land-use projections

Preservation of biodiversity and reduction of deforestation are considered as key elements when addressing an increased use of bioenergy in the future. This paper presents different combinations of scenarios for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and en...


Kraxner, FlorianNordstrom, E.M.Havlík, PetrGusti, M.Mosnier, AlineFrank, S.Valin, HugoFritz, SteffenFuss, S.Kindermann, GeorgMcCallum, IanKhabarov, N.Böttcher, HannesSee, LindaAoki, K.Schmid, ErwinMathe, L.Obersteiner, Michael[Global bioenergy scenarios - future forest development, land-use implications, and trade-offs]Global bioenergy scenarios - future forest development, land-use implications, and trade-offs

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly conside...


Schneider, UweHavlík, PetrSchmid, ErwinValin, HugoMosnier, AlineObersteiner, MichaelBöttcher, HannesSkalský, RastislavBalkovič, JurajSauer, TimmFritz, Steffen[Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption]Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of t...


Nelson, Gerald C.Mensbrugghe, Dominique van derAhammad, H.Blanc, ElodieCalvin, KatherineHasegawa, TomokoHavlík, PetrHeyhoe, EdwinaKyle, PageLotze-Campen, HermannLampe M. vonMason-D'Croz, DanielMeijl, Hans vanMüller, ChristophReilly JRobertson, Richard D.Sands, Ronald D.Schmitz, ChristophTabeau, AndrzejTakahashi, K.Valin, HugoWillenbockel, Dirk[Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree]Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

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