This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key d...
Palazzo, Amanda
,
Rutting, Lucas
,
Zougmoré, Robert B.
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Jalloh, Abdulai
,
Aubee, Ernst
,
Helfgott, Ariella E.S.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Islam, Shahnila
,
Ericksen, Polly J.
,
Segda, Zénabou
,
Moussa, Abdoulaye S.
,
Bayala, Jules
,
Kadi Kadi, Hame A.
,
Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.
,
Thornton, Philip K.
,
Valin, Hugo
,
[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios]
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The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narrativ...
Oliver, Fricko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Rogelj, Joeri
,
Klimont, Zbigniew
,
Gusti, Mykola
,
Johnson, Nils
,
Kolp, Peter
,
Strubegger, Manfred
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Amann, Markus
,
Ermolieva, Tatiana
,
Forsell, Nicklas
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Heyes, Chris
,
Kindermann, Georg
,
Krey, Volker
,
McCollum, David L.
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
Pachauri, Shonali
,
Rao, Shilpa
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Schoepp, Wolfgang
,
Riahi, Keywan
,
[The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century]
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The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibri...
Valin, Hugo
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Mosnier, Aline
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
[Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?]
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Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: Trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?
Carbon price policies deliver cost-efficient mitigation across sectors, but can result in tradeoffs with food security and other sustainable development goals. Scenarios for a 1.5 °C world based on carbon prices could increase the undernourished population by 80 - 300 million in 2050. Applying a ...
Frank, Stefan
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Wollenberg, Eva K.
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
[Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?]
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Carbon prices, climate change mitigation & food security: How to avoid trade-offs?
The presentation addresses how reducing agricultural GHG emissions impacts food security, and what the trade-offs are.
Presentation given by Stefan Frank at the European Geosciences Union conference on 24 April 2017.
Frank, Stefan
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Soussana, Jean-Francois
,
Levesque, A
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Wollenberg, Eva K.
,
Kleinwechter, U.
,
Fricko, Oliver
,
Gusti, Mykola
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Smith, P.
,
Hasegawa, T.
,
Kraxner, Florian
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
[Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?]
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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of th...
Stehfest, Elke
,
Zeist, Willem-Jan van
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Valin, Hugo
,
Havlik, Petr
,
Popp, Alexander
,
Kyle, Page
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Bodirsky, Benjamin L.
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Doelman, Jonathan C
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Humpenöder, Florian
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
Wiebe, Keith
,
[Key determinants of global land-use projections]
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Key determinants of global land-use projections
Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly conside...
Schneider, Uwe
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Mosnier, Aline
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
Böttcher, Hannes
,
Skalský, Rastislav
,
Balkovič, Juraj
,
Sauer, Timm
,
Fritz, Steffen
,
[Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption]
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Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with ...
Lampe M. von
,
Willenbockel, Dirk
,
Ahammad, H.
,
Blanc, Elodie
,
Cai, Yongxia
,
Calvin, Katherine
,
Fujimori, Shinichiro
,
Hasegawa, Tomoko
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Heyhoe, Edwina
,
Kyle, Page
,
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Nelson, Gerald C.
,
Sands, Ronald D.
,
Schmitz, Christoph
,
Tabeau, Andrzej
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
,
Meijl, Hans van
,
[Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison]
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Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
McIntire, John M.
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
Valin, Hugo
,
[L’avenir de l’élevage africain : Réaliser le potentiel de l’élevage pour la sécurité alimentaire, la réduction de la pauvreté et la protection de l’environnement en Afrique sub- saharienne]
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L’avenir de l’élevage africain : Réaliser le potentiel de l’élevage pour la sécurité alimentaire, la réduction de la pauvreté et la protection de l’environnement en Afrique sub- saharienne
This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that ...
Havlík, Petr
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Gusti M
,
Schmid, Erwin
,
Leclere D
,
Forsell N
,
Herrero, Mario T.
,
Khabarov, N.
,
Mosnier, Aline
,
Cantele M
,
Obersteiner, Michael
,
[Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: an integrated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors]
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Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: an integrated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors