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Este resumen de política presenta el proceso y los principales resultados del desarrollo de la INDC de Costa Rica a través de un proceso participativo en el que la construcción y uso de escenarios futuros fue el primer paso de un diálogo nacional para definir, probar y mejorar las medidas de miti...


Veeger, MariekeVervoort, Joost M.Martínez Barón, DeissyLeón F. dePaniagua F[Cambiando el paradigma: las narrativas del futuro guían el desarrollo de la INDC de Costa Rica]Cambiando el paradigma: las narrativas del futuro guían el desarrollo de la INDC de Costa Rica

This policy brief summarizes the process and main results of the development of Costa Rica´s INDC through a participatory process in which the building and use of future scenarios was the first step in a national dialogue to define, test and improve mitigation measures to lower emissions of green...


Veeger, MariekeVervoort, Joost M.Martínez Barón, DeissyLeón F. dePaniagua F[Shifting the paradigm: Narratives of the future guide the development of Costa Rica's INDC]Shifting the paradigm: Narratives of the future guide the development of Costa Rica's INDC

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key d...


Palazzo, AmandaRutting, LucasZougmoré, Robert B.Vervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrJalloh, AbdulaiAubee, ErnstHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaEricksen, Polly J.Segda, ZénabouMoussa, Abdoulaye S.Bayala, JulesKadi Kadi, Hame A.Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.Thornton, Philip K.Valin, Hugo[The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios]The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantifie...


Palazzo, AmandaVervoort, Joost M.Havlík, PetrMason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, Shahnila[Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis]Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmenta...


Bennett, Elena M.Solan, MartinBiggs, ReinetteMcPhearson, TimonNorström, Albert V.Olsson, PerPereira, LauraPeterson, Garry D.Raudsepp-Hearne, CiaraBiermann, FrankCarpenter, Stephen R.Ellis, Erle C.Hichert, TanjaGalaz, VictorLahsen, MyannaMilkoreit, ManjanaMartin López, BertaNicholas, Kimberly A.Preiser, RikaVince, GaiaVervoort, Joost M.Xu, Jianchu[Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene]Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene

The objective of this handbook is to guide policy makers and practitioners from the public, private and research sector in the development and use of scenarios to support the inclusive formulation of policies and other decision-making processes related to complex issues taking place in changing e...


Veeger, MariekeMason-D'Croz, DanielDunston, ShahnilaVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, Amanda[Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America]Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America

Development of socio-economic scenarios and translating them into suitable storylines and provide an overview of potential data to be used for a quantification of future disease vulnerabilities


Notenbaert, An Maria OmerVervoort, Joost M.Snel, D.[Future socioeconomic changes]Future socioeconomic changes

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions...


Lord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Vervoort, Joost M.[Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques]Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
Payo ABecker, P.Otto AVervoort, Joost M.Kingsborough A[Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems]Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems

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