The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmenta...
Bennett, Elena M.
,
Solan, Martin
,
Biggs, Reinette
,
McPhearson, Timon
,
Norström, Albert V.
,
Olsson, Per
,
Pereira, Laura
,
Peterson, Garry D.
,
Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara
,
Biermann, Frank
,
Carpenter, Stephen R.
,
Ellis, Erle C.
,
Hichert, Tanja
,
Galaz, Victor
,
Lahsen, Myanna
,
Milkoreit, Manjana
,
Martin López, Berta
,
Nicholas, Kimberly A.
,
Preiser, Rika
,
Vince, Gaia
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Xu, Jianchu
,
[Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene]
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Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene
Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions...
Lord S
,
Helfgott, Ariella E.S.
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
[Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques]
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Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques
Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
Islam, Shahnila
,
Lord S
,
Helfgott, Ariella E.S.
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Peou R
,
Sassen M
,
Veeger, Marieke
,
Soesbergen, A. van
,
Arnell, A.P.
,
Stuch B
,
Arslan, A.
,
Lipper, Leslie
,
[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]
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Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
Payo A
,
Becker, P.
,
Otto A
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Kingsborough A
,
[Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems]
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Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems
Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-off...
Soesbergen, A. van
,
Arnell, A.P.
,
Sassen M
,
Stuch B
,
Schaldach R
,
Göpel, J.
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Islam, Shahnila
,
Palazzo, Amanda
,
[Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment]
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Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment
The Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5 degree temperature target has given further impetus to efforts to imagine (and seek to govern) transformative and uncertain climate futures. This brings to the fore multiple challenges in the search for anticipatory governance and the role herein for climate...
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Gupta, Aarti
,
[Anticipating climate futures in a 1.5 °C era: the link between foresight and governance]
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Anticipating climate futures in a 1.5 °C era: the link between foresight and governance
In this exploratory paper we propose ‘worldmaking’ as a framework for pluralistic, imaginative scenario development. Our points of departure are the need in scenario practice to embrace uncertainty, discomfort and knowledge gaps, and the connected need to capture and make productive fundamental p...
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Bendor R
,
Kelliher A
,
Strik O
,
Helfgott, Ariella E.S.
,
[Scenarios and the art of worldmaking]
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Scenarios and the art of worldmaking
The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national le...
Palazzo, Amanda
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
,
Rutting, Lucas
,
Havlík, Petr
,
Islam, Shahnila
,
Bayala, Jules
,
Valin, Hugo
,
Kadi Kadi, Hame A.
,
Thornton, Philip K.
,
[Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context]
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Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
Climate change impacts on agriculture have become evident, and threaten the achievement of global food security. On the other hand, the agricultural sector itself is a cause of climate change, and if actions are not taken, the sector might impede the achievement of global climate goals. Science-p...
Dinesh, Dhanush
,
Zougmoré, Robert B.
,
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
Totin, Edmond
,
Thornton, Philip K.
,
Solomon, Dawit
,
Shirsath, Paresh
,
Pede, Valerien
,
López Noriega, Isabel
,
Läderach, Peter
,
Körner, Jana
,
Hegger, Dries
,
Girvetz, Evan H.
,
Friis, Anette Engelund
,
Driessen, Peter P.J.
,
Campbell, Bruce M.
,
[Facilitating Change for Climate-Smart Agriculture through Science-Policy Engagement]
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Facilitating Change for Climate-Smart Agriculture through Science-Policy Engagement
In the last decade, games have grown into a dominant and highly diverse form of media, characterized by a number of transformations in the game sector that offer new opportunities for games in a futures context. These developments include changes in the cultural presence, the production and disse...
Vervoort, Joost M.
,
[New frontiers in futures games: leveraging game sector developments]
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New frontiers in futures games: leveraging game sector developments