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Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios...


Mason-D'Croz, DanielVervoort, Joost M.Palazzo, AmandaIslam, ShahnilaLord SHelfgott, Ariella E.S.Havlík, PetrPeou RSassen MVeeger, MariekeSoesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Stuch BArslan, A.Lipper, Leslie[Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia]Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-off...


Soesbergen, A. vanArnell, A.P.Sassen MStuch BSchaldach RGöpel, J.Vervoort, Joost M.Mason-D'Croz, DanielIslam, ShahnilaPalazzo, Amanda[Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment]Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

In this exploratory paper we propose ‘worldmaking’ as a framework for pluralistic, imaginative scenario development. Our points of departure are the need in scenario practice to embrace uncertainty, discomfort and knowledge gaps, and the connected need to capture and make productive fundamental p...


Vervoort, Joost M.Bendor RKelliher AStrik OHelfgott, Ariella E.S.[Scenarios and the art of worldmaking]Scenarios and the art of worldmaking

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